1043 ET - Retail demand is likely to keep municipal-bond markets on good footing despite an expected strong issuance, Alvarez & Marsal Private Wealth's Taki Kisaka says. "This year we've actually already seen about $20 billion in inflows into the municipal bond space, which has easily been able to digest the approximately $17 billion in net new issuance this year." He says high taxpayers will likely remain interested in munis' exemptions, as more localities consider extra taxation on the wealthy. The firm expects higher education and healthcare sectors to stand out as more negative. Kisaka said geopolitical tensions could help beef up demand for munis as a safe-haven asset. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1038 ET - Canadian retail sales appear to have posted the best quarter for growth since before U.S. trade tensions began to weigh on consumer sentiment, th9ough tougher tests are still to come, says CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham. Building on January's increase, sales in February rose 0.7% on-month and a flash estimate indicates sales in March increased 0.6%. Grantham says that with higher pump prices limiting the ability of some households to make discretionary purchases, consumer spending is likely to slow again in volume terms during 2Q. That slowdown should limit the spread of inflationary pressures to other areas of the economy, and enable the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates on hold through 2026, the economist says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1035 ET - The Bank of England's meeting next week will be watched for policymakers' views on inflation and growth amid the Middle East war, Nomura research analysts say in a note. The monetary policy committee is expected to "update markets on its reaction function to the U.S.-Iran war," the analysts say. MPC members should outline their views on risks to the economy and inflation from high energy prices, they say. Investors price in an 85% chance of the BOE keeping interest rates on hold at 3.75% during the meeting and a small 15% chance of a 25 basis-point increase to 4.0%, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1033 ET - A 0.3% month-on-month rise in Canadian retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than anticipated, but the bigger news is the flash estimate for March points to an only 0.6% increase despite the surge in gasoline prices, Capital Economics says. The research firm estimates that means sales volumes fell about 1% last month, which would be the weakest for at least six months. That wouldn't be enough to seriously dent an otherwise positive first quarter, with sales volumes still on track to have risen by about 4% annualized, but it suggests a weak handover to the second quarter and hints at a slowdown in consumption, Capital Economics says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1027 ET - With the Justice Department's probe of Jerome Powell winding down, Kevin Warsh likely has a clear path to succeed Powell as Fed chair. His nomination had been held up in the Senate over Republican Thom Tillis's opposition to the Powell investigation. When confirmed, Warsh would take over the board seat now occupied by Stephen Miran, winding down Miran's short seven-month stint at the central bank. Powell can elect to stay on the Fed's board as a governor, although most past Fed chairs have left the institution when their leadership terms end. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1011 ET - The dollar could show little reaction if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady Wednesday and reiterates a message of patience regarding future moves, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "With geopolitical uncertainty remaining high and data not justifying a need for the Fed to act imminently, market reaction to the Fed meeting and statement should be muted," they say. The focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and how he addresses any questions about his tenure and possibility of staying on in the interim. Most scenarios under a transition led by Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh skew moderately dollar negative due to lingering questions over his independence compared to Powell, they say. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1009 ET - Many economists and investors will watch whether Fed Chair Powell leans into language that reflects two-sided risks to policy next week. "We think it won't, but it's a close call," BofA says in a note. The bank adds that Powell is likely to reinforce a higher-for-longer stance in the news conference, and upside risks to inflation from the Iran war haven't dissipated. Markets are pricing in a 99.5% chance of the Fed staying on hold at April's meeting. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1006 ET - Two months of rising retail sales in Canada highlights underlying consumer resilience in the face of significant headwinds, says Bank of Montreal's Shelly Kaushik. Sales rose 0.7% on month in February, and the flash estimate points to a 0.6% increase in March. Kaushik notes that comes against a backdrop ofnamely elevated economic uncertainty and outright population declines. Still, the economist says softer spending volumes and signs of further weakness in March suggest consumers can only hold on for so long. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0941 ET - Sterling could slightly outperform the euro in the coming week if Thursday's European Central Bank and Bank of England policy decisions prompt a favorable repricing in rate-rise expectations, TD Securities strategists say in a note. The BOE could leave rates unchanged and take a wait-and-see stance in response to higher energy prices, they say. However, sterling could rise modestly against a potentially weaker euro. "We expect the euro-sterling downtrend to persist toward the 0.8600-0.8650 range on the back of ECB rate hike pricing converging toward that of the BOE." Meanwhile, recent pressure on U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign has had little impact on sterling, they say. The euro trades flat at 0.8672 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0921 ET - Yields on German government bonds climb faster than yields on their corporate bond equivalents due to inflation worries and the possibility of interest-rate rises by the European Central Bank, LBBW's Michael Kohler and Benedikt Horwedel say in a note. Investors fully price in two quarter-point interest-rate rises by the ECB in 2026, with the first expected as early as July, LSEG data show. Ten-year German Bund yields are up around 34 basis points since the start of the Middle East conflict, to last trade at 3.007%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Stats published since the Fed's last meeting in mid-March have shown few signs of economic deterioration, while price increases have persisted. That will likely leave the Fed's policy committee without much reason to signal upcoming interest-rate cuts at the April meeting next week, Jeremy Schwartz of Nomura writes in a note to clients. "Even dovish officials have emphasized patience," Schwartz notes, pointing to a speech from governor Christopher Waller last week. And given that the Iran conflict remains tense despite the cease fire, officials will remain alert to the risk that energy-price spikes could trigger broader inflation, per Nomura. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260424006202:0/