"Mùa" của các đồng tiền điện tử thay thế đã kết thúc, Bitwise CIO tuyên bố - Không thấy khả năng Fed giảm lãi suất vào tháng 3

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Key points:
According to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, investors are likely to see a “non-traditional” altcoin season in this crypto cycle that could “re-rate” some DeFi tokens.
He predicted that Bitcoin’s price may dip again, but to lower highs above the $60,000 bottom.
He also agreed with Arthur Hayes’ thesis that the government is going to have to print more money in order to fund its war against Iran, which will lead to inflation.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in an interview that the altcoin season “game is over” and that investors are more likely to see a “non-traditional” altcoin season in the coming cycles.

In an interview with Paul Barron, Hougan said that the market is unlikely to see “rising tides, lifts all” buckets where traders rotate from Bitcoin (BTC), to Ethereum (ETH), to decentralized finance (DeFi), to NFTs. “I don’t think we’re going to get to that level of craziness,” he stated.

“I think that game is over. I think we’ll see a non-traditional altcoin season.”

– Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Advisor, Bitwise

According to Hougan, this time a “non-traditional” altcoin season is likely to reward tokens with real-world traction and real-world applications. “The market may re-rate some DeFi tokens which are trading at billion-dollar valuations and have huge businesses,” he said. “I just think it’ll be more differentiated than previous altcoin seasons.“

His comments come after Santiment data showed that chatter around “altseason” was the lowest it has been in two years.

Bitcoin’s Bottom Was $60,000, Higher Lows Ahead

According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price has bottomed at $60,000 for this cycle. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin will shoot higher immediately, but is likely to make lower highs moving forward, he explained.

“We’re in the bottoming phase, maybe the local bottom is in,” he said. “I have every confidence that we’re going higher over the next 12 months.”

According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, Bitcoin’s price jumped almost 40% when the Russia-Ukraine war started and then fell around 67%. With the U.S.-Iran war, he pegs ️ Bitcoin could go as high as $80,000 before reversing gains.

According to Hougan, there’s been a change in retail sentiment, which indicates the tail end of the crypto slump is in. “Today, when we have good news like Trump posting something positive on crypto, we just rip,” he said. “So we’re rewarding good news, and that’s a real change in investor psychology that you don’t usually see during the depths of crypto winter.”

Bitcoin’s price has fallen 3.8% in the last 24 hours, holding above $70,400 on Friday morning. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the apex cryptocurrency slipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past day.

Hougan Says Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely In March, But Bank Will Have To Print More Money

Hougan said it’s unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March, but there will be more rate cuts down the road. “I think the world is looking to a war-ish rate cut regime,” he stated.

Hougan added that in the current base case, the “dominant paradigm” is that artificial intelligence (AI) is acting as a deflationary force, which is the key reason the Trump administration wants to lower rates. “And it [administration] will get lower rates,” he stated.

He also agreed with Arthur Hayes’ thesis that the government is going to have to print more war in order to fund its war against Iran. “It’s not like we have a pocket in the Pentagon’s budget for a new kinetic war each year. That is additional spending,” he said. “Wars lead to money printing, which leads to asset price inflation. It always happens and it will happen again here.”
source: https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/stocktwits:8cd6847fb094b-2069c4e1e3f8a7c7a97efac11f2e92ac-resized.webp